« Comment les pays en développement font face à la crise globale »

Swimming Against the Tide :

How Developing Countries Are Coping with the Global Crisis

I. Key Messages

The sharp global contraction is affecting both advanced and developing countries.

Global industrial production declined by 20 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, as highincome and developing country activity plunged by 23 and 15 percent, respectively. Particularly hard hit have been countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia and producers of capital goods. Global GDP will decline this year for the first time since World War II, with growth at least 5 percentage points below potential. World trade is on track to register its largest decline in 80 years, with the sharpest losses in East Asia, reflecting a combination of falling volumes, price declines, and currency depreciation.

Financial conditions facing developing countries have deteriorated sharply.

The World Bank estimates that developing countries face a financing gap of $270-$700 billion depending on the severity of the economic and financial crisis and the strength and timing of policy responses. Even at the lower end of this range, existing resources of international financial institutions

would appear inadequate to meet financing needs this year. Should a more pessimistic outcome occur, unmet financing needs will be enormous.

The financial crisis will have long-term implications for developing countries.

Sovereign debt issuance by high-income countries is set to increase dramatically, crowding out many

developing country issuers (private and public). Many institutions that have provided financial

intermediation for developing country clients have virtually disappeared. Developing countries

are likely to face higher spreads, and lower capital flows than over the past 7-8 years, leading to weaker investment and slower growth in the future.

The challenge facing developing countries is how, with fewer resources, to pursue

policies that can protect or expand critical expenditures, including on social safety nets, human development and critical infrastructure.

This will be especially difficult for LICs: the slowdown in growth will likely deepen the degree of deprivation of the existing poor, since large numbers of people are clustered just above the poverty line and particularly vulnerable to economic volatility and temporary slowdowns. Many of the most affected LICs are heavily dependent on official concessional flows, which will be under pressure in donor countries facing their own fiscal challenges.

There is a therefore a strong need to expand assistance to LICs to protect critical

expenditures and prevent an erosion of progress in reducing poverty.

Attention must bedirected to protecting the poor through targeted social spending, including expanded safety nets, and to maintaining and expanding the infrastructure assets that will be critical to restoring growth following the crisis. A concerted effort is also needed to support the private sector, especially SMEs, which are essential to a resumption of growth and job creation in developing countries. Creation of a global Vulnerability Fund, financed with a modest portion of advanced country stimulus packages, could go a long way to providing the resources necessary for these efforts.

Source : Banque mondiale.

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